Brazil could be the big winner in the US-China tariff war
China is set to receive about 3 million tons of U.S. soybeans in April-May, Reuters reported according to trade sources and shipping data. This is despite the fact that new higher tariffs on American products that are poised to choke off flows of China’s largest U.S. farm import item.
Most of the cargoes were purchased by state stockpiler Sinograin, said four sources familiar with the matter, which, they said, is likely to pay the higher duties but may nonetheless have to sell at a discount locally amid competition from cheaper beans from Brazil, the world’s biggest grower.
“We don’t expect cancellations or any major issues with these cargoes since a government company has made these purchases,” said one of Reuters’ sources, a Singapore-based trader at an international trading company. “But they can, in no way sell U.S. beans with the duty. They will have to absorb the duty.”
With China the world’s largest soybean importer and the United States the second-largest grower of the oilseed, their escalating trade war threatens to disrupt global flows of crops as each side has ratcheted up trade levies.
In early March, China imposed a 10% duty on U.S. soybean imports after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a similar duty on Chinese goods. More than 30 cargoes set to arrive in the coming weeks, totalling around 2 million tons, will be subject to that tariff, according to Reuters calculations based on Kpler data.
On Friday, China slapped an additional 34% levy on all U.S. goods in response to U.S. duties imposed on April 2. The calculations based on Kpler data show 15 vessels, carrying about 800,000 tons, are expected to arrive after May 13 and will therefore be subject to total tariffs of 44%.
Nearly 600,000 tons of U.S. soybeans purchased during the marketing year ending in August 2025 had yet to be shipped as of March 27, according to analysts, and it remains unclear if those cargoes will be shipped or cancelled.
China imported a record 105 million tons of soybeans in 2024, and top supplier Brazil is expected to deliver record-high soybean exports to China in the second quarter. With an expected record crop in Brazil this year, China is likely to meet most of its demand from the South American country in coming months.